Market recap: Week of 15–19 Jan 2024

Citigroup Q4 highlights

Reuters:

• Revenue: $17.4B (↓3% YoY)  
• Markets revenue: $3.4B (↓19%)
• Banking revenue: $949M (↑22%)
• U.S. personal banking: $4.9B (↑12%)
• Plan job cuts: 20,000 (8% of staff) by 2026
• Challenges persist, with rivals JP Morgan and Bank of America also reporting lower profits.

Global gold ETFs

World Gold Council:

Net outflows: -$1B in Dec (7th consecutive monthly loss)
Total holdings: 3,225t (↓10t in Dec)

Regional flows:

• North America: +$717M
• Asia: +$208M
• Europe: -$2B
  

Historical:

• Soft landings: Avg. flat returns in the past two instances.
• Recessionary strength: Gold historically performs well during economic downturns.

Japan economy

Reuters, Gold.Org and Japan Times:

• Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting on 22-23 January affects USDJPY
• Market anticipates insights on wages and potential end to negative rates in April.
• Real wages concern: Shrinking for 20th month (Nov), down 3.0% YoY—heightening worries for economic recovery.
• 2024 Shunto (wage negotiation): Rengo seeks a substantial 5% pay increase.

Oil markets

Reuters and Offshore Technology:

• Conflict impact: Limited effect on crude output
• Profit taking: Prices weakened after 2% gains last week
• Brent Crude: Settled at $78.15 (-0.2%)
• WTI (West Texas Intermediate) Crude: $72.50 (-0.3%) on Holiday
• Saudi cuts & OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) Rise: Countering Middle East concerns
• US EIA (Energy Information Administration) outlook: 2024–25 average oil prices stable
• Navigating geopolitical shifts in the energy landscape.

US and Eurozone inflation

Financial Review and The Wall Street Journal:

• Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller: US “within striking distance” of 2% inflation goal
• Caution urged: No rush to cut benchmark interest rate; must ensure sustained lower inflation
• Economy strong, labour markets solid, gradual inflation decline to 2%
• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warns of inflation “see-saw” if rates cut too soon
• Euro hits 5-week low vs. USD on bets of early European Central Bank rate cuts, contrasting with potential prolonged high rates from the US Federal Reserve

European economy

CNBC:

• Portugal’s central bank governor, Mario Centeno: Eurozone inflation moving positively
• Medium-term focus, not fixated on short-term fluctuations like February
• German central bank chief, Joachim Nagel: Inflation too high for rate cut talks now
• Summer potential for discussions, domestic pressures cited for inflation shift  

ECB Update

AFP News:

• President Lagarde hints at potential interest rate cuts this summer
• Emphasises reliance on the latest economic data for decision-making
• Eurozone inflation at 2.9% in Dec, down from 2022 peak but above 2% target
• Key risk factors: Energy prices & supply chain disruptions
• Wage negotiations & profit margins closely monitored for inflation battle
• Lagarde: More clarity in April/May post-wage agreements

2023 year-end bonus trends

Gusto and Morgan Stanley:

• American bonuses down 3.8-36.2% vs 2022, 12.3-36.7% vs 2021
• Tech sector resilient (-3.8% YoY), stable bonuses despite slow growth
• Transportation sector hit hard, down -36.2% since last year
• Bonus cuts expected to impact consumption and inflation
• Morgan Stanley warns of overvalued stocks post-2023 rally
• Bonus reduction adds pressure to the stock market

UK inflation

The Financial Review, DailyMail UK, and the Guardian:

• Inflation report: UK consumer prices rose 4% in Dec, exceeding estimates.
• Money markets price four quarter-point reductions.
• Largest upward contribution tobacco, due to tax
• 65% chance of a fifth cut in 2024, per swaps tied to central bank meetings.
• May rate cut chance drops to just over 50%, from 85% the previous day.
• June rate cut remains fully priced.
• UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt teases big tax cuts in March budget.
• Note: Former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget caused chaos in GBP with proposed rate cut.

Workforce reduction

Breakingthenews.net:

Macy’s cuts jobs

• Workforce reduction: About 2,350 employees (13% of corporate staff, 3.5% of overall workforce).
• Store closures: Five locations shuttered to embrace automation and offshore roles.
• Strategic Shift:
  • Visual appeal: Focus on visual display managers for enhanced in-store appearance.
  • Digital upgrade: Improving online shopping experience through digital function enhancements.

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Rad etish:

Ushbu blogdagi ma`lumotlar faqat ta`lim maqsadlarida va moliyaviy yoki investitsiya maslahati sifatida mo`ljallanmagan. Manbalar tomonidan e`lon qilingan sanada to`g`ri deb hisoblanadi. Nashr qilingan vaqtdan keyin vaziyatning o`zgarishi ma`lumotlarning aniqligiga ta`sir qilishi mumkin.

O`tgan natijalar kelajakdagi natijalarning kafolati emas. Har qanday savdo qarorlarini qabul qilishdan oldin o'z tadqiqotlaringizni o'tkazishingizni tavsiya etamiz.

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