Огляд рынка: Неделя с 05 по 09 февраля 2024 года

The Wall Street Journal: US strong growth & market reaction

• Employers added 353 000 jobs, exceeding expectations and signalling robust economic strength.
• Bond yields surged post-report, suggesting investor confidence in a delayed Federal Reserve rate cut.
• The payroll report could keep the Fed on hold for now, with the next meeting on March 19-20.
• While stocks saw gains, smaller companies faced challenges amidst concerns over prolonged rate cuts.

Kitco: Survey on 2024 gold and silver

• UBS predicts gold and silver to climb amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• Gold thrives as interest rates fall, offering a hedge against low bond yields.
• Silver could outperform gold in a scenario of Fed easing, says UBS strategist.
• Mixed opinions: Alliance Financial sees gold declining further, while Zaye Capital Markets remains cautious.

9news: Australian Central Bank rate decision 06 Feb

• Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to maintain cash rate, update economic outlook
• December Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows 4,1% inflation
• Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warns central banks against swift interest rate cuts
• RBA to hold eight meetings in 2024, skipping April, July, October
• AUDUSD below 10-day and 50-day moving averages, signalling potential weakness

The Business Standard: China CPI on 08 Feb

• Deflationary pressures rise: Weak domestic demand
• Importance of supportive fiscal policy emphasised
• Consumer behaviour affected: Delayed purchases expected
• Beijing's fiscal policy boost: Increased budget deficit, encouragement for banks
• Pork prices impact: Slumping prices affect CPI figures
• Ample hog supply & sluggish consumption contribute

ABC News: RBA holds rates

• RBA decision to keep rates on hold had been widely anticipated
• An increasing number of economists now expect the RBA to start cutting rates in the second half of this year as inflation continues to moderate
• RBA statement: Inflation continued to ease in the December quarter. Despite this progress, inflation remains high at 4,1%.
• Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the RBA Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.

CNBC and Reuters: General Motors recall 

• General Motors is recalling 323 232 vehicles to address an issue with the tailgate that may open while driving, potentially causing a road hazard, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
• U.S. vehicle sales increased 14,1%, reported sales of roughly 2,6 million vehicles in 2023, representing the automaker’s best year since 2019.
• Compared to its competitors in the US, Toyota sold 2,3 million, and Honda sold 1,3 million cars in 2023.

Reuters: Uncertainty creeps back to US Treasury

• Treasury yield surge
• Fed caution sparks recalibration
• 10-year Treasury yield up 20 basis points
• Concerns over bond supply surge
• Expected 2 trillion USD in new government bond issuance
• Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income predicts 10-year yields approaching 5%
• John Madziyire, Vanguard plans to start climbing to 4,5%

Yahoo & BNN Bloomberg: Citigroup warns on Nasdaq

• Citigroup Inc. strategists warn of potential wider rout
• Nasdaq 100 futures bearish wagers completely erased
• Goldman Sachs' Scott Rubner cautions on potential market downturn

Wall Street Journal and CFR: Deflation Tightens in China

• China's consumer prices drop by 0,8% YoY in January
• Prices of fruit, vegetables, and meat decline
• Pork prices plummet by 17,3% YoY
• Income growth slows, challenging debt servicing and spending
• Corporate profits decline, hindering investment and hiring
• Balance-sheet recession looms as debt burden rises
• People’s Bank of China fixes central parity rate to prevent yuan depreciation

Seeking Alpha: JP Morgan says crude oil can rise another 10

• Crude oil expected to surge 10 USD more by May
• JP Morgan forecasts tightening market
• Global economy showing signs of improvement
• Crude inventories decline across regions

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