Why Bitcoin can’t hold $90K while Gold and Oil surge

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $90,000 level more than once this year, yet each attempt has faded just as quickly. While the world’s largest cryptocurrency struggles to build momentum, traditional macro trades are stealing the spotlight. Gold has surged to fresh record highs above $5,500 an ounce, while oil prices have climbed to their strongest levels since September, reshaping inflation expectations and investor behaviour.

The contrast is striking. Bitcoin, often pitched as a hedge against monetary instability, is now trading around 30% below its October peak of $126,000, even as commodities thrive. Understanding why bitcoin cannot hold $90,000 requires looking beyond crypto narratives and into the macro forces now driving global markets.

What’s driving Bitcoin’s weakness?

At the heart of bitcoin’s struggle is a shift in monetary expectations. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this week, holding them in a 3.5%–3.75% range and signalling it wants clearer evidence that inflation is cooling before cutting again. While the decision itself was widely expected, the tone mattered. It pushed back against hopes for quick liquidity easing and helped stabilise the US dollar after days of volatility.

That firmer dollar has reduced one of bitcoin’s recent tailwinds. Earlier bouts of dollar weakness supported risk assets, but as the dollar index posted its biggest one-day gain since November, capital rotated back towards assets perceived as more reliable stores of value. Bitcoin briefly touched $90,000 during Wednesday’s session but failed to attract sustained follow-through, slipping back as macro traders refocused elsewhere.

Why Gold and Oil are winning the capital battle

Gold’s rally has been relentless. Prices have risen by more than 60% over the past year and have extended gains into 2026, driven by falling confidence in fiat currencies, geopolitical risk, and concerns about central bank independence. 

Even Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, has increased its exposure, holding roughly 130 metric tons of physical gold and signalling plans to allocate up to 15% of its portfolio to bullion.

Oil has added another layer of pressure. West Texas Intermediate crude has climbed around 12% this month to above $64 a barrel, while Brent has followed a similar path. Rising energy prices feed directly into inflation, lifting costs across transport, manufacturing and consumer goods. That dynamic complicates the outlook for rate cuts and undermines assets like bitcoin that benefit from looser financial conditions.

Why it matters for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s inability to keep pace with gold exposes an uncomfortable reality. Despite its reputation as “digital gold,” the asset continues to trade more like a high-beta risk instrument than a defensive hedge. When inflation fears rise, investors are choosing bullion. When the dollar firms, bitcoin retreats.

David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said bitcoin needs to break and hold convincingly above $90,000 to attract fresh buying. “That would mean that $100,000 becomes the next bullish target,” he said, warning that without stronger support, a move back below $85,000 remains plausible. For now, conviction remains fragile.

Impact on the broader crypto market

The lack of momentum has weighed on the wider crypto complex. Ether has slipped back towards $2,950, while Solana, XRP and Dogecoin have posted deeper intraday losses. Crypto has consistently lagged commodities and equities, even during periods when the dollar softened earlier this month.

This divergence reinforces the view that crypto remains sidelined in the current market regime. As metals and energy dominate global trading flows, bitcoin has struggled to develop an independent narrative. Traders increasingly see it responding to external macro signals rather than driving its own trend.

Expert outlook

Analysts say bitcoin’s next decisive move depends less on internal adoption stories and more on macro shifts. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted that past rallies coincided with sharp dollar declines. This time, however, gold and silver have captured most of the upside from recent currency weakness.

Technically, bitcoin remains locked in consolidation. Resistance around $89,000–$90,000 is reinforced by the 50-day moving average, while support near $85,000 has so far held. Until inflation pressures ease, oil prices cool, or the Fed signals renewed easing, bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound rather than resuming a strong uptrend.

Key takeaway

Bitcoin’s failure to hold $90,000 is not a crypto-specific story but a macro one. As gold and oil surge, inflation risks rise and the Fed stays cautious, capital has flowed away from speculative assets. Until those pressures ease, bitcoin is likely to remain stuck in consolidation. The next major move will depend on inflation data, energy prices and shifts in central bank expectations.

Bitcoin technical outlook

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase following its earlier correction from highs, with price trading near the lower half of its recent range and holding above the $84,700 area. Bollinger Bands have narrowed compared with the prior expansion, indicating reduced volatility and a slowdown in directional momentum. 

Momentum indicators show a softening profile, with the RSI dipping below the midline, reflecting weakening upside momentum after a brief recovery attempt. Trend strength remains elevated, as evidenced by high ADX readings, though directional indicators suggest the trend has lost momentum. Structurally, price continues to oscillate beneath the former resistance zones around $107,000 and $114,000, pointing to a market environment characterised by consolidation rather than active price discovery.