Is Bitcoin quietly starting a new bull market?

Bitcoin is stirring. There's no screaming headline, no viral frenzy - but savvy traders sense the shift. Amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, Bitcoin is quietly but decisively flipping the script.

On 22 April, Bitcoin burst past $91,000, snapping a stubborn downward trend for the first time this year. The spark? President Trump’s surprising hint at softer tariffs against China injected fresh optimism into the markets. But just as quickly as hope surged, China doused expectations, publicly denying any tariff negotiations and sending uncertainty rippling back through markets.

Bitcoin’s Institutional investors step up - retail Investors wait

Despite the macroeconomic confusion, institutional investors have boldly returned to the market. US Bitcoin ETFs recorded an impressive $381 million inflows, the highest levels since January, signaling robust institutional backing and confidence in Bitcoin's longer-term outlook.

In contrast, retail investors remain cautious, notably absent from recent market moves. Historical data suggests retail typically arrives after sustained momentum, meaning their current hesitance leaves Bitcoin more dependent on leveraged traders and speculative futures markets - introducing a heightened risk of volatility.

Bitcoin price resistance: Quiet bullish signals beneath the surface

Bitcoin faces critical resistance around $94,000, where bullish momentum has notably slowed. Recent market activity reflects substantial profit-taking, evidenced by nearly 90,998 BTC in spot market outflows, while outflows stood at $56,981 BTC.

Despite this, underlying data from exchanges reveals an important bullish indicator: significantly more Bitcoin is leaving exchanges than entering. High outflows typically signal that investors - particularly large-scale holders and whales - are accumulating and withdrawing to long-term holdings.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) metric recently approached a key level of 2, historically associated with intense bullish phases. Reclaiming this level could further solidify confidence in a sustained uptrend.

ETH’s quiet moves: Ethereum zkVM upgrade

While Bitcoin commands the most attention, Ethereum has quietly announced a promising scalability upgrade through its co-founder, Vitalik Buterin. The transition toward a highly efficient zkVM system promises substantial efficiency improvements, potentially reshaping Ethereum's scalability narrative. Although less visible amid Bitcoin's drama, Ethereum’s quiet evolution could significantly impact its competitive standing over the long term.

Despite strong institutional backing, Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory remains uncertain and heavily influenced by external factors. The ongoing US-China trade tensions and geopolitical developments continue to pose substantial risks. Additionally, the cryptocurrency faces competition from faster and cheaper blockchains, such as Solana, which occasionally surpass Bitcoin and Ethereum in transaction volumes during peak market activity.

Technical outlook: The quiet before the storm?

Bitcoin currently sits at a pivotal crossroads, supported by substantial institutional investment but held back by cautious retail sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainties. At the time of writing, BTC is touching highs of $94,000 with bullish bias dominant despite some selling pressure.

Price remaining above the moving average after last week’s cross-over indicates that the larger trend is looking up. However, RSI dipping sharply from the overbought zone hints at weakening upside pressure. Should prices retreat, key support levels to watch are $92,860 and $85,500. If we see further upside, a target price to watch would be $96,000. 

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