日本的新刺激时代是否推动了下一次全球套利贸易繁荣？

The yen carry trade influences far more than just forex markets. When traders borrow yen and invest globally, it increases liquidity and risk appetite across stocks, bonds, and commodities. This can amplify rallies in risk assets but also heighten the chance of sharp corrections if sentiment shifts.

When the BoJ tightens or global volatility spikes, traders often unwind these positions quickly - leading to sudden capital flows out of emerging markets and into safer assets. This chain reaction makes the yen carry trade a key driver of global market stability.

For a deeper look at managing volatility, see our guide to market volatility.

A hawkish BoJ surprise, joint intervention, or a shift in global sentiment could lift the yen. A decisive move from the BoJ - even a modest rate increase - could quickly unwind speculative positions. Until then, policy divergence continues to favour a stronger dollar and a weaker yen.

The dollar’s resilience keeps the carry trade profitable. Even with anticipated Fed rate cuts, U.S. yields remain well above Japan’s. Moreover, in times of global uncertainty, the dollar’s safe-haven status reinforces demand, making it the preferred counterpart to yen-funded positions.

Tokyo could step in through direct FX intervention, but such actions often have limited impact unless accompanied by BoJ policy support. The government has already issued warnings, but traders remain unconvinced. If USD/JPY surpasses 155, intervention becomes more likely - though history suggests the effect may be temporary.

The carry trade involves borrowing in a low-yielding currency like the yen to invest in assets that offer higher returns. As Japan maintains near-zero rates and global markets rally, investors are reviving this strategy. Its return matters because it increases speculative flows, keeps the yen under pressure, and can amplify volatility when sentiment turns.

The latest yen carry trade could be triggered by Japan’s pro-stimulus fiscal policies and the BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary stance. After Sanae Takaichi’s election, expectations of higher public spending and delayed rate hikes made borrowing yen cheap while global markets rallied.

This policy divergence and widening yield gap between Japan and the U.S. created ideal conditions for traders to fund leveraged positions in higher-yielding assets.

The yen is falling because Japan’s new government is prioritising growth through fiscal expansion, while the BoJ remains hesitant to raise interest rates. This mix encourages capital outflows, with traders borrowing yen to invest in higher-yield markets. Global risk appetite has also surged, further eroding the yen’s safe-haven appeal.