Forex kurslariga ta'sir etuvchi omillar

Forex bozori savdo qilish uchun eng katta va eng qulay moliyaviy bozorlardan biri sifatida, dunyo bo'ylab treyderlar uchun ko'plab savdo imkoniyatlarini taklif etadi. Forex savdosi asosan bir valyutani boshqa bir valyutaga almashtirishdir va ikki valyutaning qiymati bir-biriga qarshi o'lchanadi. Buni almashtirish kursi deb atashadi. 

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Odatiy ravishda ikki xil almashtirish kursi mavjud — qat'iy va o'zgaruvchan kurslar. If a currency has a fixed rate, its value is pegged to the value of another currency and maintained until the local government adjusts the official exchange rate. 

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However, if a currency has a floating rate, its value is determined by forces in the forex market through supply and demand. 

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Lezalar o'zgaruvchan almashtirish kurslariga tasir etuvchi bu kuchlar nimalar? And what factors should a trader consider when predicting how a currency value will move? 

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In this blog post, we go through important factors that affect the mid- and long-term trends of foreign exchange rates and the value of currencies. 

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Foiz stavkalari

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A high interest rate leads to higher currency values, as it will attract foreign investment and increase the demand for the local currency. 

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Foiz stavkasi — qarz oluvchi uchun qarzdorlik qilgan kapital yoki aktivdan foydalanish uchun to'lovi bo'lib, bu umumiy qarz summasining foizi hisoblanadi. Bu investor uchun daromad foiz stavkasini anglatadi, ya'ni investitsiyalarning foydalari yoki zararlarini.

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Agar bir mamlakat taklif etayotgan foiz stavkalari yuqori bo'lsa, xorijiy investorlar bu mamlakatga investitsiya kiritishga tayyor bo'lishadi, chunki ular vaqt o'tishi bilan o'z investitsiyalaridan yuqori daromad olishadi. Xorijiy kapital mahalliy mamlakatga investitsiya sifatida kiritilganda, xorijiy valyuta mahalliy valyutaga o'zgartirilishi kerak. Bu mahalliy valyutaga bo'lgan talabni oshiradi va uning qiymatini ko'taradi.

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Interest rates are determined by central banks, so it’s good to keep an eye on important announcements made by them. 

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Inflatsiya

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Inflatsiya, agar tovarlar va xizmatlar narxlari ko'tarilsa, valyutaning xarid qilish qobiliyatining pasayishiga olib keladi. The measurement of a currency’s purchasing power is a strong indicator of its value, and can be observed through a country’s level of inflation. 

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Inflatsiya, agar tovarlar va xizmatlar qimmatlansa, sodir bo'ladi. Bu yoki narxni oshirish, yoki ortib borayotgan talab tufayli ishlab chiqarish xarajatlarining oshishi natijasida ro'y berishi mumkin. This in turn pushes up the prices of goods and services as either they become more expensive to produce or production fails to meet increasing demand. 

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Agar inflatsiya yuqori bo'lsa, xaridorlar tovarlar va xizmatlarni avvalgi vaqtlarga qaraganda ko'proq pullar sarflashlari kerak bo'ladi, ya'ni valyutaning xarid qilish qobiliyati kamaya boshlaydi. The measurement of a currency’s purchasing power is a strong indicator of its value. 

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Agar inflatsiya past bo'lsa, valyuta kuchayadi, chunki uning xarid qilish qobiliyati yuqori — bir birlik valyuta ko'proq narsalarni sotib olish qobiliyatiga ega. Bu, o'z navbatida, ushbu valyutaga talabning oshishiga olib keladi, bu esa uning qiymatini oshiradi.

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Xalqaro savdo

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Valyutaning qiymati davlatlar o'rtasidagi savdo muvozanatidan ham ta'sirlanishi mumkin — savdo muvozanati mamlakatning import va eksportlar o'rtasidagi farqni anglatadi. Countries with higher exports will usually experience an increase in their currency’s value. 

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Xukuk kelajagida Britaniya mahsulotlariga talab oshsa. Britaniya mahsulotlarini import qilishni xohlaydigan davlatlar Britaniya mahsulotlarini sotib olish uchun o'z valyutalarini Britaniya funtiga o'zgartirishlari kerak bo'ladi. This will then increase the demand for pound sterling as countries are buying more products with the currency, which will then boost its value. 

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Xalqaro savdo mamlakat inflatsiya kursidan ham ta'sirlanadi.

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Masalan, agar AQSHda yuqori inflatsiya darajasi bo'lsa, AQSH-da ishlab chiqarilgan tovarlar va xizmatlarni sotib olish qiyinlashadi, chunki AQSH dollarining xarid qilish qobiliyati kamaygan. There will be less demand for the US dollar, thus leading to a decreasing value and exchange rate. 

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Iqtisodiy va siyosiy barqarorlik

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Xalqaro savdo mamlakatning iqtisodiy sog'lig'i bilan yaqin aloqada. Economic health can be measured by a number of factors, including GDP, inflation, as well as a country’s current account and balance of payments — the difference between how much a country spends and how much it earns. 

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Agar bir mamlakat xorijiy savdoni import qilish uchun qancha tushum ham sarflashayotgan bo'lsa, hisob qaydnomasi defitsitda bo'ladi. They would need more foreign capital to buy foreign products, resulting in a lower demand for local currency and a decrease in the local currency’s value. 

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Bir valyutaning almashtirish kursi va yuqori qiymati mamlakatning siyosiy barqarorligiga ham kuchli ta'sir qiladi. Solid financial and economic policies determined by a stable government will greatly contribute to confidence in a currency and the economy as a whole. 

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Insonlar iqtisodiyotning kelajakdagi kengayishi va o'sishi haqida ishonchli va iliq munosabatda bo'lganda, ular mahalliy valyutaga investitsiya qilishga tayyor bo'lishadi. Bu valyutaga bo'lgan talabni oshiradi va shu bilan uning qiymatini kuchaytiradi.

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Taxminlar

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Forex bozori va valyuta kurslari ham taxminlarga javob berishi mumkin. Masalan, agar taxminlar iqtisodiy hodisalar yoki global yangiliklarga javob berishi kutilayotgan valyuta qiymatining oshishini kutsa, investorlar mablag'larni xarid qilishadi. This leads to an increase in demand, resulting in an increase in the currency’s value. 

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It is important to note that there are many factors that contribute to currency exchange rates and price movements, leading to potentially significant volatility in the forex market. 

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So in addition to considering the factors mentioned above in a fundamental analysis, make use of technical analysis to support your strategy and trading style when you trade forex. Haqiqiy pul bilan savdo qilishdan oldin strategiyangizni takomillashtirish imkonini beradigan, virtual valyutalar bilan oldindan yuklangan demo hisob bilan savdo qilishni xavfsiz shaklda mashq qilishingiz mumkin.